I received many calls from clients asking
1. whether they should buy the stock when there are CD,
2. whether they should hold the stock after XD.
3. will the price up or down after XD.
Well, I have no confirm answer for this. But we can use the performance of individual stock after XD to give us a guideline. You can look at ChartNexus chart for Singapore stocks.
We can look at few examples to collect the statistic and ‘guess’ the behaviors of the stock after XD. Of course nobody can 100% know the actual movement.
1. SembMar – Out of last 8 times dividend payout, 7 times the price drop after that and 1 time the price up. So based on statistic, I may consider not to hold SembMar too long after XD. Perhaps I may sell first and wait for it to drop then buy back.
2. Neratel. Out of 5 times, 4 times price up after XD and only 1 time price drop. So for this case, I may consider to hold the stock after XD.
In my view, besides looking at the individual stock statistic, we need to look at the trend and behavior of the candlestick of the stock too in order to make a better ‘guess’.
Sharing my thought with you for your reference. Please make your own judgment.
